Monday, March 12, 2012

Foreclosure Rates

I've had a couple of questions lately about where to find foreclosure rates by county. Without paying for information, county-level foreclosure rates are hard to find and when you can find them, the numbers are old (HUD foreclosure rates, 2008; New York Federal Reserve Bank, Third Quarter 2010). Some private entities (such as Realty Trac) publish limited free foreclosure information. However, they don't publish their methodology and an analysis of their figures suggest they may leave something to be desired.

However, for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), I have found what looks to be some decent free and relatively up-to-date foreclosure data. This analysis of LPS Applied Analytics Data by the Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) is well documented and on-going. And, their methodology is available so the data-user can understand the data itself. You can access their data by clicking here.

I've also thrown together some visualizations of their foreclosure data below. First some definitions:

Foreclosure Rate: Percent of all mortgages in the foreclosure inventory in the reference month.  Mortgages in the foreclosure inventory include those in foreclosure and bankruptcy foreclosures prior to auction or trustee sale.

Prime Foreclosure Rate: Percent of all prime mortgages in the foreclosure inventory in the reference month.  Prime mortgages are those that are Grade A, not a government product or government-insured, and either with 1) credit scores over 720 or 2) credit scores are from 680-719 with full documentation.

Subprime Foreclosure Rate: Percent of all subprime mortgages in the foreclosure inventory in the reference month. Subprime mortgages are those that a servicer coded as subprime or loans made to borrowers with FICO scores below 620 who did not receive a government, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan.

Serious Delinquency Rate: Percent of all mortgages either 90 or more days delinquent or in the foreclosure inventory in the reference month.

90+ Delinquency Rate: Percent of all mortgages 90 or more days delinquent and have not yet entered into judicial or non-judicial foreclosure in the reference month.

Not surprisingly, Utah's poster child for the housing bubble, the St. George, UT MSA (Washington County), shows the rates for most worst measures. On the other hand, it still ranks far below some of the worst MSAs (many in Florida and also nearby Las Vegas). In June 2011, Washington County's foreclosure rate ranking measured 146 and its serious delinquency rate measured 130. The Salt Lake City MSA showed the next Utah highest rankings, while the Logan, UT-ID MSA showed the lowest foreclosure rankings. Hmmm. . .Utah MSAs with the most bubble-like increases in home prices (see the previous post) also show the highest foreclosure rates. While the MSA in Utah with the smallest home-price acceleration during the boom (Logan, UT-ID MSA) shows the lowest foreclosure ranking in Utah. Coincidence? I think not.

You'll also notice that all the Utah MSAs show a decline in serious delinquency rates since the national peak in foreclosures in December 2009. In this case, the St. George, UT MSA has shown the most improvement.